Chen Lin – What Happened To $50 Silver In June, Outlook For Silver And Copper
Chen Lin, Editor of What Is Chen Buying? What Is Chen Selling? joins me to follow up on his call for $50 silver in June and outlook now for copper and silver.
We start with why silver hasn’t hit that $50 mark. Chen shares his disappointment, but emphasizes the importance of understanding market sentiment and leveraging risk-reward strategies. We also explore the performance of silver stocks and look at various companies like SilverCrest, MAG Silver, and Guanajuato Silver. Chen explains how these producers are maintaining good levels, even when momentum as faded for the whole sector.
Switching gears, we cover the sharp movements in the copper market, focusing on what’s been driving the price shifts and the implications for copper miners. Chen shares his expectations for future prices and why copper producers are still strong despite recent market volatility.
For most of the quarter that just ended SLV:GLD was well above breakout level based on the high closes of 2011 and 2021 but yesterday it closed below breakout level. Today’s strength however pushed the closing price back to a breakout. Yes, just barely but that little bullish bias is plenty since momentum has spoken and the big picture remains on the pure green lights that I gave late last year. The pop from the Feb. lows was not driven by dumb money and dumb money remains absent for this healthy pullback/consolidation so the picture is brighter than it appears from several angles.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=Q&yr=19&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9806653321c&a=1708688248&r=1719604969049&cmd=print
The last two sessions have looked like just a backtest of broken uptrend support for the TSX-V but late-day strength made that bearish potential less clear. Is it now going to take out its June 21st low or is it up from here?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p33765307547&a=1708602323
Last week delivered the first weekly close below the weekly KAMA since early December yet despite that bearish event this week was only slightly lower (-0.16%) and the 50 week MA continues to hold on a closing basis. So if we do have a new low coming soon I bet it will happen quickly and won’t be a much lower low.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDNX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p15686315212&a=1432109794
Silver just put in its highest quarterly close since 2012. For perspective, the previous quarter closed at merely a 2 year high.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=Q&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=t3427077877c&a=1646779701&r=1719608086862&cmd=print
The monthly chart looks great and the low this month didn’t even reach 2020’s high monthly close.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=t9681163749c&a=1650611856&r=1719608811243&cmd=print
New low for IPT on tiny volume…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=5&mn=11&dy=0&id=p61242894160&a=1690043196
I bought some more IPT Friday.
I should have too.
Like silver, copper’s low is probably not far off.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p93823767534&a=1185444288
As mentioned awhile back, $27.00 silver is still a possibility before we bottom out in this move—all it would take is for Chen to call for $50.00 silver in July. A positive for the PMs is that gold finished the month at a lower closing price then the previous month for the first time in 4 months. The gold chart is still positive with the MACD 12 month MA leading the 26 month MA higher. If the 12 month MA bends toward the 26 month MA in July we’ll still see a consolidation but the first week of July should tell us a lot for the rest of the month. A lot of the PM stocks are retracting again and it’s a good time to keep accumulating.
Been hearing $50 for 20 years, every year. I guess I can call myself an expert too and claim $50 will come one day and then say “I told you so” . Chen Lin is one of the very few that can make claims and still have his integrity intact when they are wrong though.
The facts are obviously on your side. Chen has been extremely successful and that doesn’t happen by being a contrary indicator.
Speaking of contrary indicators, at the lows in February Richard said this: “Just recently, pricing for Newmont bounced exactly off the 400 month moving average. I would proffer that pricing will in all probability close below that moving average in the next 2 months. So, what’s the common sense inference —–it’s that you cannot count on any basic change in the ongoing narrative for the precious metal stocks in the next couple of months or the near future.”
That’s pretty confident talk so it should come as no surprise that Newmont went UP 50% “in the next 2 months” instead of closing below the 400 month moving average as proffered.
And of course Joe magically showed up in mid February with his bearish views precisely when he should have been buying the sector. Silver was 22-23 that day and I said: “Silver, at least short term, hasn’t looked so good in months. Longer term is still all clear since late last year.” 3 months later it was up 40%.
The last time I posted this QQQ:SILJ chart was March 4th when it was a strong sell (it then fell over 33% from there) and now it has found strong resistance at the 150 and 200 day moving averages.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p41556208421&a=1521546696
Chen Lin is a very interesting analyst and trader. His mind moves in and out of different types of resource markets. He is also interested in different sectors of investing like Bio-tech. He is fully fluent in Chinese (Mandarin and Cantonese) and English and probably a few other languages. He is constantly in touch with traders in China where they exchange information. He has a larger picture than most on what is shaping the markets. He works very hard at his craft and always follows through on his ideas and his willingness to share his thoughts. His stock picks are second to none. When he recommends a stock, he keeps contacting management to update his recommendation and makes site visits on a regular basis no matter where that may be. It is always a pleasure to follow his thinking. I am glad that The Ker Report has included him in their interviews. DT😉
FREAKY FRIDAY AGAIN……………….. have a great one……..
Not going to doing anything till it breaks that $32 mark….. been saying that for years….
Just a matter of time….
PAPER…… market runs the show, nothing new there….